Ukrainian housing market: shortage of new projects is inevitable - EBA analyst
The analysis of the Ukrainian Developers Association based on statistics from LUN and the State Statistics Service shows that the housing market is entering a phase of future deficit.
Decreasing trend in the number of new starts
As we noted earlier, today developers are mostly completing projects that were started before the full-scale war. There are few new starts.
The industry is operating in a challenging environment: uncertainty, high construction costs, labor shortages, rising prices for construction materials, and limited access to credit and complex licensing procedures are holding back investment activity.
As a result, there is a growing gap between the "commissioned" and "construction started" lines. This is the main marker of the upcoming shortage: in a year or two, the market will feel it to the fullest, a trend that is already clearly evident.
The situation in the regions
According to the LUN, after 02/24/2022, Kyiv launched about 26 thousand apartments compared to about 45 thousand in 2021, which is -42% of the pre-war rate. Such volumes of new starts are the lowest in the last decade. At the same time, the capital remains the leader in terms of the number of commissioned facilities, a result of active investment in 2020-2021.
In the Kyiv region, the rate of new construction starts also fell by more than half from pre-war levels.
Lviv has shown the opposite trend: ~26 thousand starts since the beginning of the war versus ~18 thousand in 2021 (+44%). The region partially compensates for the nationwide decline due to internal migration and business relocation.
Since 24.02.2022, about 120 thousand apartments have been launched across the country, but unevenly: competition has shifted to a "struggle for the attention of the buyer," where location, developer reputation, construction quality and price/quality ratio are decisive.
Demand is growing, supply is shrinking
According to the Association, more than 80% of the houses to be commissioned in 2025 are projects that were launched in 2020-2021.
Thus, the current rate of delivery is the inertia of past investments, not a sign of a real market recovery.
If demand picks up later, thanks to economic stabilization, the expansion of lending programs and the return of internal migrants, the shortage of new housing will become apparent. Under these conditions, the price per square meter will inevitably rise, and there will not be enough housing for everyone.
What the media and international experience say
In 2025, the government significantly boosted demand: Ukrainians have already received more than UAH 10.5 billion in mortgage financing under eHouse, and eVodnovnennya has reached more than 140,000 families, which means thousands of additional buyers amid limited supply.
At the same time, developers themselves publicly declare caution with new launches due to declining margins (in particular, Taryan Group postpones new projects until project economics improve).
Even despite the statistical "plus" for starts in the first half of 2025 (low base effect), the market will not catch up with the volumes of 2020-2021 in the short term.
The experience of Poland confirms that.mortgage incentives quickly heat up demand, but without a synchronized expansion of construction, this translates primarily into higher prices.
