Residential real estate market dynamics 2025–2026: how demand is changing and what is shaping new development standards in Ukraine

On November 27, UNIT.City hosted the industry Invest Forum: Real Estate from developer Sensar. Leading developers, architects, and experts took part in the event. Among the members of the Ukrainian Association of Developers were: Vice President of UDP Vitaliy Melnyk, CEO of RIEL Rostislav Melnyk, CEO of Avalon Roman Davymuka, and Director of Development at Kreator-Bud Dmytro Struk. Other speakers included: Yevhen Metsger, Chairman of the Board of Ukrfinzhytlo; Oleksandr Novitsky, Chairman of DIAM; Dmytro Vasilyev, CEO of Archimatika; Anna Iskierdo, architect and co-founder of AIMM; and others.

The forum focused on key trends and investment opportunities in the real estate market during the war. Experts discussed demand dynamics, residential project development models, housing requirements, risks, and market stabilization tools for 2025–2026.

New requirements, human-centered approach, risks during wartime

During the discussion on the dynamics of the residential real estate market, participants talked about how buyer demand is changing in Kyiv and western regions. Developers agreed that buyer demand has changed, but basic needs have not. According to Vitaliy Melnyk, demand is moving away from abstract "standards" and toward the infrastructural completeness of a complex:

"Being able to access all services within a 15-minute walk is a basic need for any person. The most valuable resource we have is time. If you offer such a product, people will definitely choose it. It's like switching from a push-button phone to a modern one. If, back in 2005, people were asked whether they needed a phone without buttons, everyone would probably have said that they needed a full keyboard. But when you were given the opportunity to use a smartphone and you felt what it was like, you realized that this was what you needed to use. It's the same in development. Complex development is not something we invented. It's a global trend. We are simply following it."

The speakers discussed the importance of professional residential complex management. Rostislav Melnyk highlighted a paradox: many new facilities have been built in recent years, but almost no one knows how to manage them effectively:

"No one knows how to manage properties. Ninety percent of everything in Kyiv is impossible. People face problems with managing real estate and their living space. It is very important that developers think about how they will manage the property right from the start. The legislation is not regulated, there are many problems, and this needs to be considered in advance."

It is not necessary to build a fitness center or swimming pool in every residential complex. It is more important to meet the basic needs of residents. There should be kindergartens, medical facilities, shops, children's rooms, and household services. And something extra can be added as a bonus if the project's budget allows it.

In addition, they discussed issues of floor space and density, risks for developers and investors, as well as criteria for assessing the reliability of projects and the ability of companies to complete construction projects in conditions of instability. 

The issue of safety and risks was one of the most pressing topics in the discussion. Rostislav Melnyk outlined the total losses from flights as follows:

"We had three strikes. The actual damage from the rocket is approximately $1.2 million. For a large complex, this is not critical."

He also highlighted three criteria for reliability: the developer's experience, transparency of ownership, and willingness to take responsibility towards the buyer. This opinion was supported by Mark Marchenko from Sensar, who added that many companies, such as McDonald's, are currently paying attention to the ultimate beneficiary in construction projects. Therefore, if the owners of a company in Ukraine are open, this is a signal that such an enterprise can be trusted.

What will influence the real estate market in 2026

While Ukrainians postponed decisions to buy homes at the start of the war, demand is now growing. This is further stimulated by government programs. At the same time, salaries in the construction sector, the cost of materials and construction work, inflation, and high demand for services are all rising, while there is a shortage of skilled workers. 

"Today is the cheapest point in comparison with the future. With each passing month and year, it will become more expensive," says architect, founder and CEO of Arhimatika, Dmitry Vasilyev.

Staff shortages will become one of the main challenges for developers in the coming years. In addition, this will also mean longer construction times.

In addition, given the consequences of the war, the housing shortage in Ukraine continues to grow.

Potential areas of growth in demand include the capital, western regions, the outskirts of large cities, and settlements where businesses are relocating. In other words, investment is moving to areas where new jobs and production facilities are appearing. This applies not only to residential complexes, but also to hubs — facilities that combine living, learning, and working, particularly for blue-collar and technical professions.

The Ukrainian Association of Developers notes that architecture and planning are becoming an increasingly important part of the construction industry. Well-thought-out architectural solutions will determine the success of development projects in the coming years.

The importance of architecture, urban planning, and inclusion 

In the coming years, it will be important not only what is being built, but how it affects people's lives. Architecture is no longer just about beautiful facades. Architecture today is about how space "works," how people live in it, how they use the infrastructure, and how comfortable they feel. Architects say that if an area is well designed, it will "work" for decades. If not, "architects' mistakes will remain for centuries."

Comprehensiveness, consistency, and design value are important in large construction projects, taking everything into account — from aesthetics to processes.

"Comprehensive development and the city as a whole are about shaping processes in this city. A construction project must meet the needs of the city, actually improve its infrastructure, and give something to the community. Unfortunately, few people here know how to do this. We have essentially lost the urban planning industry. The old institutions have collapsed, and the people who work there no longer know how to operate in a market economy and in business," adds Vasilyev.

At the same time, the task of developers is to find opportunities where architects could work and design objects. In addition, developers will have to pay more attention to land planning and design quality.

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A separate and important requirement for Ukrainian development is inclusion. The city should be convenient for everyone, especially for people with disabilities and low-mobility groups. Architect and co-founder of AIMM Olena Iskierdo explains that this should become the norm, not an "option":

"Educational institutions, public places, train stations, shopping malls, transport, etc. need to be made inclusive and adapted to people, because unfortunately there are already a lot of them today, and there are becoming even more. And this is a principle that I believe should become part of our lives," Olena emphasizes.

"It won't be the same as before" 

During one of the conversations between DIAM Chairman Oleksandr Novitsky and Sensar Development CEO Mark Marchenko, they discussed the results of the reform of state control in construction. According to the developer, in recent years, the industry has virtually eliminated corrupt practices: permits are issued without "additional payments," and developers save millions of dollars each year thanks to transparent procedures.

"There has been no corruption in four years. I believe that this is recognition of the entire law enforcement system, which is our achievement. Opposition is turning into support," Novitsky said.

The speakers noted that today's businesses operate in much more predictable conditions and support new standards. Developers who have adapted to transparent rules receive permits faster and without risk, and trust in the state has grown significantly. According to Novitsky, the market is no longer ready to return to old practices and expects similar reforms to spread to other areas, such as customs, tax, and land services. 

Development trends for 2026 and beyond

The general vision of experts regarding the formats of future projects and the needs of residents is as follows:

• Complex urban formats will become the basic standard for development;
• Demand will be determined by the quality of management, not just architecture;
• Buyers will choose time and services, not just favorable square meters;
• The market is becoming more mature, with a clearer understanding of risks and reliability criteria;
• Western regions and Kyiv are moving in one direction—toward large-scale, mixed-use infrastructure projects.
• Developers who operate transparently, responsibly, and with leadership will shape the market in the coming years.

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