LUN Conference 2025: the real estate market expects a shortage of supply: tomorrow will only get more expensive

During the LUN Conference 2025 held on October 7 in Kyiv, leading Ukrainian developers unanimously stated that there will be no decline in housing prices in the coming years, but instead a gradual rise in price per square meter should be expected.

There are many reasons for this: a sharp decline in new construction, a shortage of labor, rising prices for materials, and a lack of bank financing.

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Costs are rising, prices are slowly rising too 

Igor Nikonov, the founder of KAN Development, emphasized that the cost of housing is growing every day, while finding qualified specialists is becoming increasingly difficult. According to him, there will "definitely be no price reduction": companies that try to dump only increase the risk of unfinished projects.

A similar position was expressed by RIEL CEO Rostyslav Melnyk, who noted that a low price per square meter is a risk signal: "If someone sells too cheaply, it means that the project has no resources, and it may not be completed."

Ihor Huda, CEO of Creator-Bud, added that it is no longer possible to build below $1,500 per square meter in Kyiv: "the cost has risen sharply, and cheaper housing is a myth."

Serhiy Pylypenko, Executive Director of Kovalska Group, cited statistics showing that for every five completed projects, there is only one new start. "Supply is decreasing, and this is a fact. In a couple of years, we will face a shortage, which means further price increases."

Oleksandr Ovcharenko, co-owner of Standard One, noted that in the current environment, buyers are becoming more demanding, looking not just for square meters, but for comprehensive solutions with service, infrastructure and predictable returns. According to him, developers who offer a well-thought-out product will be in steady demand even in times of uncertainty.

"We are on the verge of a shortage"

In his speech, Yevhen Favorov, Chairman of the Ukrainian Association of Developers, presented statistics confirming the rapid decline in new construction in Ukraine. "We see that the volume of new construction in Ukraine is rapidly falling. We are on the verge of a supply shortage. This is already a frightening trend in Kyiv. The government is creating additional demand through the eHouse and eRestoration programs, while the supply is shrinking, so prices will inevitably go up. Therefore, if you are planning to buy a home, now is the best time," said Yevhen Favorov.

According to him, the situation in Lviv is somewhat more stable, but the general trend for the market is obvious: construction is declining and new projects are not being launched. At the same time, the share of companies that finance construction with their own funds is growing, as bank lending is virtually non-existent, and state mortgage programs cover only a small part of buyers.

Developers emphasized that the main constraint is the lack of access to long term debt. Banks do not lend to developers, and the government does not provide sufficient guarantees for institutional investors. Rostyslav Melnyk noted that international financial institutions such as IFC, the World Bank, the EBRD, etc. are ready to enter the Ukrainian market, but this requires synchronization of rules and guarantees from the state.

Yevgeny Favorov, in turn, emphasized the need to create a risk-free environment for developers: "As long as there is a risk of permits being canceled, no bank will lend money. We need conditions like in Poland, where no permit can be canceled after 5 years."

The panelists agreed that the Ukrainian housing market is entering a new phase, with fewer players but a higher quality product. Despite the war and economic challenges, the construction industry remains one of the key drivers of economic recovery.

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